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Auda vs Grobiņa Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Matchday 29 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 15:00

Auda

PPG 1.86 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWD

UPCOMING

Grobiņa

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLLW

// Model verdict

Home 73% chance

Model probability 72.4% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-13.5%0-21.0%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-013.7%1-17.7%1-22.2%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.3%2-18.6%2-22.4%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.3%3-16.3%3-21.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-010.5%4+-15.9%4+-21.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 72.4% 73.5% 1.36 -1.5%

Draw 19.6% 23.1% 4.33 -9.1%

Away win 8.0% 15.4% 6.50 -28.8%

Over 2.5 53.8% 58.8% 1.70 -8.5%

Over 3.5 33.6% 36.4% 2.75 -7.6%

BTTS 48.0% 50.0% 2.00 -4.0%

Home O1.5 66.3% 66.7% 1.50 -0.5%

Away O1.5 14.0% 22.2% 4.50 -22.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 100 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 20.6%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.0%

H 72% / xG 2.2-0.6 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 15.3%

#2 1–0 13.7%

#3 3–0 11.3%

#4 1–1 7.7%

#5 2–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Auda2.2

Grobiņa0.6

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 33.6%

Form & verdict PPG

AUDA · PPG 1.86

GROBIŅA · PPG 0.71

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

73%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.66 for Home, form 1.86 vs 0.71 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Auda (H) 72.4%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -1.5%

Draw 19.6%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -9.1%

Grobiņa (A) 8.0%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV -28.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Auda face Grobiņa in Latvia - Virsliga on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Auda a 72% chance, the draw 20% and Grobiņa 8%, so Auda are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Auda and 0.6 for Grobiņa (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Auda are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 0.71 for Grobiņa.

Auda vs Grobiņa Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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