Today / Latvia - Virsliga / Tukums vs Ogre United

Tukums vs Ogre United Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Matchday 29 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 12:00

Tukums

PPG 1.14 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLL

UPCOMING

Ogre United

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.9% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5% — a clear edge.

+24.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-11.6%0-21.0%0-30.4%0-4+0.2%1 1-04.0%1-14.9%1-23.0%1-31.3%1-4+0.5%2 2-06.2%2-17.7%2-24.8%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.5%3-18.0%3-25.0%3-32.1%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-011.1%4+-113.7%4+-28.5%4+-33.5%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.9% 56.5% 1.77 +13.1%

Draw 15.4% 26.3% 3.80 -24.9%

Away win 20.7% 27.4% 3.65 -14.7%

Over 2.5 72.6% 65.4% 1.53 +11.1%

Over 3.5 51.8% 42.6% 2.35 +21.7%

BTTS 63.5% 67.6% 1.48 -6.0%

Home O1.5 77.9% 62.5% 1.60 +24.6%

Away O1.5 36.8% 40.8% 2.45 -9.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 100 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 20.6%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 68%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob63.5%

H 64% / xG 3.1-1.2 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 8.0%

#2 2–1 7.7%

#3 1–2 3.0%

#4 1–1 4.9%

#5 3–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tukums3.1

Ogre United1.2

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.6% · O3.5 PROB 51.8%

Form & verdict PPG

TUKUMS · PPG 1.14

OGRE UNITED · PPG 0.50

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.89 for Home, form 1.14 vs 0.50 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Tukums (H) 63.9%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV +13.1%

Draw 15.4%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -24.9%

Ogre United (A) 20.7%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -14.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tukums face Ogre United in Latvia - Virsliga on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tukums a 64% chance, the draw 15% and Ogre United 21%, so Tukums are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.1 for Tukums and 1.2 for Ogre United (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tukums are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 0.50 for Ogre United. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +58.8%.

Tukums vs Ogre United Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Latvia - Virsliga Predictions