Today / Latvia - Virsliga / FS Jelgava vs Super Nova

FS Jelgava vs Super Nova Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Matchday 29 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

FS Jelgava

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLWW

UPCOMING

Super Nova

PPG 1.54 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLDD

// Model verdict

BTTS 57% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.3%0-111.2%0-26.1%0-32.2%0-4+0.8%1 1-012.2%1-113.3%1-27.2%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.2%2-17.9%2-24.3%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.9%3-13.1%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.2%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.1% 54.1% 1.85 -22.1%

Draw 27.8% 30.3% 3.30 -5.0%

Away win 30.1% 26.3% 3.80 +14.4%

Over 2.5 50.4% 54.1% 1.85 -6.8%

Over 3.5 28.7% 30.8% 3.25 -4.0%

BTTS 52.9% 58.8% 1.70 -10.1%

Home O1.5 33.0% 54.6% 1.83 -39.6%

Away O1.5 33.0% 30.8% 3.25 +7.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 100 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 20.6%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.9%

H 42% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 1–0 12.2%

#3 0–0 10.3%

#4 2–1 7.9%

#5 0–1 11.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FS Jelgava1.2

Super Nova1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FS JELGAVA · PPG 1.00

SUPER NOVA · PPG 1.54

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

57%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.09, combined xG 2.28 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

FS Jelgava (H) 42.1%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -22.1%

Draw 27.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -5.0%

Super Nova (A) 30.1%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +14.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

FS Jelgava face Super Nova in Latvia - Virsliga on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FS Jelgava a 42% chance, the draw 28% and Super Nova 30%, so FS Jelgava are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for FS Jelgava and 1.1 for Super Nova (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FS Jelgava are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.54 for Super Nova. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +21.9%.

FS Jelgava vs Super Nova Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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