Today / Harju JK vs Tammeka

Harju JK vs Tammeka Prediction

Saturday, April 25, 2026

Harju JK

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Tammeka

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-11.9%0-21.1%0-30.4%0-4+0.2%1 1-04.6%1-15.5%1-23.3%1-31.3%1-4+0.5%2 2-06.9%2-18.2%2-24.9%2-31.9%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.8%3-18.1%3-24.8%3-31.9%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-010.5%4+-112.5%4+-27.5%4+-33.0%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 73.3% — — —

Draw 14.4% — — —

Away win 12.3% — — —

Over 2.5 78.4% — — —

Over 3.5 59.7% — — —

BTTS 66.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 74%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob66.1%

H 73% / xG 3.0-1.2 / O2.5 78% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.2%

#2 3–1 8.1%

#3 2–0 6.9%

#4 3–0 6.8%

#5 4–1 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Harju JK3.0

Tammeka1.2

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 78.4% · O3.5 PROB 59.7%

Form & verdict PPG

HARJU JK · PPG 1.00

TAMMEKA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Harju JK (H) 73.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 14.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Tammeka (A) 12.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Harju JK face Tammeka on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Harju JK a 73% chance, the draw 14% and Tammeka 12%, so Harju JK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Harju JK and 1.2 for Tammeka (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 78% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Harju JK are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Tammeka. This match finished 1-0.

Harju JK vs Tammeka Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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