Today / Poland - III Liga - Group 1 / Mławianka Mława vs ŁKS Łódź II

Mławianka Mława vs ŁKS Łódź II Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 1

Group I · Matchday 7 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 14:00

Mławianka Mława

PPG 0.95 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLDL

UPCOMING

ŁKS Łódź II

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 69% chance

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-14.5%0-23.6%0-31.9%0-4+1.1%1 1-05.4%1-18.8%1-27.1%1-33.8%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.4%2-18.7%2-27.0%2-33.8%2-4+2.2%3 3-03.5%3-15.7%3-24.6%3-32.5%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-14.4%4+-23.6%4+-31.9%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.9% 48.8% 2.05 -8.0%

Draw 20.9% 26.7% 3.75 -13.0%

Away win 34.2% 35.7% 2.80 -4.2%

Over 2.5 68.4% 69.4% 1.44 -1.5%

Over 3.5 45.0% 49.5% 2.02 -9.1%

BTTS 63.5% 72.5% 1.38 -12.4%

Home O1.5 55.8% 62.1% 1.61 -10.2%

Away O1.5 47.9% 48.8% 2.05 -1.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -1.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.5%

H 45% / xG 2.0-1.6 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.8%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 7.1%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 3–1 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mławianka Mława2.0

ŁKS Łódź II1.6

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MŁAWIANKA MŁAWA · PPG 0.95

ŁKS ŁÓDŹ II · PPG 0.94

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

69%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.36 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Mławianka Mława (H) 44.9%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -8.0%

Draw 20.9%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -13.0%

ŁKS Łódź II (A) 34.2%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -4.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mławianka Mława face ŁKS Łódź II in Poland - III Liga - Group 1 on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mławianka Mława a 45% chance, the draw 21% and ŁKS Łódź II 34%, so Mławianka Mława are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Mławianka Mława and 1.6 for ŁKS Łódź II (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mławianka Mława are averaging 0.95 points per game versus 0.94 for ŁKS Łódź II.

Mławianka Mława vs ŁKS Łódź II Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Poland - III Liga - Group 1 Predictions