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Łomża vs Jagiellonia II Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 1

Group I · Matchday 7 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Łomża

PPG 1.58 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDDL

UPCOMING

Jagiellonia II

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWLD

// Model verdict

BTTS 67% chance

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 69.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-16.2%0-24.2%0-31.9%0-4+0.9%1 1-07.9%1-110.7%1-27.3%1-33.3%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.8%2-19.3%2-26.3%2-32.9%2-4+1.3%3 3-03.9%3-15.4%3-23.6%3-31.7%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.4%4+-22.3%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.8% 40.0% 2.50 +14.5%

Draw 24.2% 27.8% 3.60 -7.7%

Away win 29.9% 43.5% 2.30 -18.7%

Over 2.5 60.2% 63.7% 1.57 -5.5%

Over 3.5 37.2% 43.7% 2.29 -14.8%

BTTS 61.5% 69.9% 1.43 -12.1%

Home O1.5 49.9% 55.9% 1.79 -10.7%

Away O1.5 42.2% 47.4% 2.11 -11.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -1.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.5%

H 46% / xG 1.7-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–2 7.3%

#4 2–0 6.8%

#5 1–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Łomża1.7

Jagiellonia II1.4

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.2% · O3.5 PROB 37.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ŁOMŻA · PPG 1.58

JAGIELLONIA II · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

67%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.38 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Łomża (H) 45.8%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +14.5%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -7.7%

Jagiellonia II (A) 29.9%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -18.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Łomża face Jagiellonia II in Poland - III Liga - Group 1 on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Łomża a 46% chance, the draw 24% and Jagiellonia II 30%, so Łomża are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Łomża and 1.4 for Jagiellonia II (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Łomża are averaging 1.58 points per game versus 1.50 for Jagiellonia II.

Łomża vs Jagiellonia II Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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