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Lechia T. Mazowiecki vs Troszyn Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 1

Group I · Matchday 7 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Lechia T. Mazowiecki

PPG 1.91 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWWD

UPCOMING

Troszyn

PPG 1.02 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLDD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 73% chance

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.6% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-12.2%0-21.6%0-30.8%0-4+0.4%1 1-04.1%1-16.0%1-24.3%1-32.1%1-4+1.0%2 2-05.7%2-18.2%2-26.0%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-05.2%3-17.5%3-25.5%3-32.6%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-07.0%4+-110.1%4+-27.3%4+-33.6%4+-4+1.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.4% 69.0% 1.45 -15.3%

Draw 18.8% 22.2% 4.50 -9.2%

Away win 22.8% 20.0% 5.00 +8.4%

Over 2.5 72.6% 73.5% 1.36 -1.3%

Over 3.5 51.1% 53.8% 1.86 -5.0%

BTTS 63.5% 69.4% 1.44 -8.6%

Home O1.5 66.4% — — —

Away O1.5 42.2% 38.3% 2.61 +10.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -1.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.5%

H 58% / xG 2.8-1.5 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.2%

#2 1–1 6.0%

#3 3–1 7.5%

#4 2–2 6.0%

#5 1–2 4.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lechia T. Mazowiecki2.8

Troszyn1.5

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.6% · O3.5 PROB 51.1%

Form & verdict PPG

LECHIA T. MAZOWIECKI · PPG 1.91

TROSZYN · PPG 1.02

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

73%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.30 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Lechia T. Mazowiecki (H) 58.4%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV -15.3%

Draw 18.8%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -9.2%

Troszyn (A) 22.8%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +8.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lechia T. Mazowiecki face Troszyn in Poland - III Liga - Group 1 on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lechia T. Mazowiecki a 58% chance, the draw 19% and Troszyn 23%, so Lechia T. Mazowiecki are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Lechia T. Mazowiecki and 1.5 for Troszyn (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lechia T. Mazowiecki are averaging 1.91 points per game versus 1.02 for Troszyn. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +10.1%.

Lechia T. Mazowiecki vs Troszyn Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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