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Widzew II vs Wisła Płock II Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 1

Group I · Matchday 7 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 10:00

Widzew II

PPG 1.80 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWWW

UPCOMING

Wisła Płock II

PPG 1.45 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 71% chance

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-13.5%0-22.5%0-31.2%0-4+0.6%1 1-05.6%1-18.0%1-25.7%1-32.7%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.3%2-19.1%2-26.5%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-04.8%3-16.9%3-25.0%3-32.4%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-16.7%4+-24.8%4+-32.3%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% 52.4% 1.91 +1.6%

Draw 21.0% 25.6% 3.90 -10.9%

Away win 25.8% 33.3% 3.00 -13.6%

Over 2.5 68.4% 71.4% 1.40 -4.2%

Over 3.5 49.4% 46.9% 2.13 +5.2%

BTTS 63.5% 71.4% 1.40 -11.1%

Home O1.5 66.3% 59.9% 1.67 +10.7%

Away O1.5 42.2% 47.6% 2.10 -11.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -1.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.5%

H 53% / xG 2.3-1.4 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.1%

#2 1–1 8.0%

#3 3–1 6.9%

#4 1–2 5.7%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Widzew II2.3

Wisła Płock II1.4

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 49.4%

Form & verdict PPG

WIDZEW II · PPG 1.80

WISŁA PŁOCK II · PPG 1.45

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

71%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.84 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Widzew II (H) 53.2%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV +1.6%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -10.9%

Wisła Płock II (A) 25.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -13.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Widzew II face Wisła Płock II in Poland - III Liga - Group 1 on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Widzew II a 53% chance, the draw 21% and Wisła Płock II 26%, so Widzew II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Widzew II and 1.4 for Wisła Płock II (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Widzew II are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.45 for Wisła Płock II. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +25.7%.

Widzew II vs Wisła Płock II Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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