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Górnik Polkowice vs Carina Gubin Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 3

Group III · Matchday 7 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 14:00

Górnik Polkowice

PPG 2.01 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDWW

UPCOMING

Carina Gubin

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 67% chance

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-12.6%0-21.6%0-30.7%0-4+0.3%1 1-05.5%1-16.8%1-24.2%1-31.7%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.3%2-19.0%2-25.5%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-06.4%3-17.9%3-24.8%3-32.0%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-07.9%4+-19.7%4+-26.0%4+-32.5%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.2% 64.5% 1.55 -2.0%

Draw 16.3% 25.0% 4.00 -20.9%

Away win 20.5% 22.2% 4.50 -4.7%

Over 2.5 68.4% 66.7% 1.50 +2.6%

Over 3.5 45.0% 39.1% 2.56 +15.2%

BTTS 60.8% 61.3% 1.63 -0.9%

Home O1.5 66.3% 61.0% 1.64 +8.7%

Away O1.5 36.8% 32.3% 3.10 +14.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 14.6%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 71%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob60.8%

H 63% / xG 2.6-1.2 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.0%

#2 3–1 7.9%

#3 2–0 7.3%

#4 1–1 6.8%

#5 3–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Górnik Polkowice2.6

Carina Gubin1.2

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

GÓRNIK POLKOWICE · PPG 2.01

CARINA GUBIN · PPG 1.06

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

67%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.40 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Górnik Polkowice (H) 63.2%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -2.0%

Draw 16.3%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -20.9%

Carina Gubin (A) 20.5%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -4.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Górnik Polkowice face Carina Gubin in Poland - III Liga - Group 3 on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Górnik Polkowice a 63% chance, the draw 16% and Carina Gubin 21%, so Górnik Polkowice are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Górnik Polkowice and 1.2 for Carina Gubin (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Górnik Polkowice are averaging 2.01 points per game versus 1.06 for Carina Gubin. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +54.4%.

Górnik Polkowice vs Carina Gubin Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 3

Match Preview & Prediction

More Poland - III Liga - Group 3 Predictions