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Górnik Polkowice vs Karkonosze Jelenia Góra Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 3

Group III · Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 15:00

Górnik Polkowice

PPG 1.88 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDWW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWLD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.4% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-14.7%0-23.8%0-32.0%0-4+1.2%1 1-05.6%1-19.0%1-27.3%1-33.9%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.4%2-18.7%2-27.0%2-33.8%2-4+2.2%3 3-03.5%3-15.6%3-24.5%3-32.4%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-14.2%4+-23.4%4+-31.8%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.8% 54.6% 1.83 -19.9%

Draw 22.0% 27.0% 3.70 -11.2%

Away win 34.2% 30.3% 3.30 +12.9%

Over 2.5 63.4% 61.7% 1.62 +2.7%

Over 3.5 42.3% 40.7% 2.46 +4.1%

BTTS 63.1% 64.5% 1.55 -2.2%

Home O1.5 54.9% 58.8% 1.70 -6.7%

Away O1.5 48.5% 37.9% 2.64 +28.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 14.6%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.1%

H 44% / xG 1.9-1.6 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.0%

#2 2–1✓ 8.7%

#3 1–2 7.3%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 3–1 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Górnik Polkowice1.9

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra1.6

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.4% · O3.5 PROB 42.3%

Form & verdict PPG

GÓRNIK POLKOWICE · PPG 1.88

KARKONOSZE JELENIA GÓRA · PPG 1.11

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.32 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Górnik Polkowice (H) 43.8%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -19.9%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -11.2%

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra (A) 34.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +12.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Górnik Polkowice face Karkonosze Jelenia Góra in Poland - III Liga - Group 3 on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Górnik Polkowice a 44% chance, the draw 22% and Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 34%, so Górnik Polkowice are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Górnik Polkowice and 1.6 for Karkonosze Jelenia Góra (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Górnik Polkowice are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 1.11 for Karkonosze Jelenia Góra. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +28.0%. This match finished 2-1.

Górnik Polkowice vs Karkonosze Jelenia Góra Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 3

Match Preview & Prediction

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