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Sparta Katowice vs Ślęza Wrocław Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 3

Group III · Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 10:00

Sparta Katowice

PPG 2.02 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWWW

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Ślęza Wrocław

PPG 1.03 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 62.6% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-14.4%0-22.2%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.3%1-19.3%1-24.6%1-31.5%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.0%2-19.9%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.1%3-17.1%3-23.5%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-06.2%4+-16.2%4+-23.1%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.9% 66.7% 1.50 -16.2%

Draw 22.2% 26.3% 3.80 -9.4%

Away win 21.9% 20.0% 5.00 +5.7%

Over 2.5 62.6% 60.6% 1.65 +3.3%

Over 3.5 39.0% 41.3% 2.42 -5.6%

BTTS 54.7% 59.9% 1.67 -8.6%

Home O1.5 59.6% 67.1% 1.49 -11.2%

Away O1.5 30.2% 28.6% 3.50 +5.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 14.6%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.7%

H 56% / xG 2.1-1.0 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 2–0 10.0%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 9.3%

#5 1–2 4.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sparta Katowice2.1

Ślęza Wrocław1.0

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.6% · O3.5 PROB 39.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SPARTA KATOWICE · PPG 2.02

ŚLĘZA WROCŁAW · PPG 1.03

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.14 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sparta Katowice (H) 55.9%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -16.2%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -9.4%

Ślęza Wrocław (A) 21.9%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +5.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sparta Katowice face Ślęza Wrocław in Poland - III Liga - Group 3 on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sparta Katowice a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Ślęza Wrocław 22%, so Sparta Katowice are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Sparta Katowice and 1.0 for Ślęza Wrocław (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sparta Katowice are averaging 2.02 points per game versus 1.03 for Ślęza Wrocław. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +10.8%. This match finished 3-0.

Sparta Katowice vs Ślęza Wrocław Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 3

Match Preview & Prediction

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