Today / Poland - III Liga - Group 3 / Kluczbork vs Zagłębie Lubin II

Kluczbork vs Zagłębie Lubin II Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 3

Group III · Matchday 4 ·Wednesday, August 19, 2026, 15:00

Kluczbork

PPG 1.96 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLWW

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Zagłębie Lubin II

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-15.7%0-24.1%0-32.0%0-4+1.0%1 1-07.2%1-110.3%1-27.3%1-33.5%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.4%2-19.1%2-26.5%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-03.8%3-15.4%3-23.9%3-31.9%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.6%4+-22.6%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.6% 43.5% 2.30 +0.3%

Draw 23.0% 28.6% 3.50 -11.7%

Away win 33.4% 35.7% 2.80 -6.5%

Over 2.5 59.9% 61.7% 1.62 -3.0%

Over 3.5 36.8% 40.0% 2.50 -8.0%

BTTS 61.3% 65.4% 1.53 -6.2%

Home O1.5 48.8% 51.3% 1.95 -4.8%

Away O1.5 41.2% 45.5% 2.20 -9.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 14.6%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.3%

H 44% / xG 1.8-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–2 7.3%

#4 2–0 6.4%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kluczbork1.8

Zagłębie Lubin II1.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.9% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

KLUCZBORK · PPG 1.96

ZAGŁĘBIE LUBIN II · PPG 1.38

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.35 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Kluczbork (H) 43.6%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +0.3%

Draw 23.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -11.7%

Zagłębie Lubin II (A) 33.4%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -6.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kluczbork face Zagłębie Lubin II in Poland - III Liga - Group 3 on Wednesday, August 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kluczbork a 44% chance, the draw 23% and Zagłębie Lubin II 33%, so Kluczbork are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Kluczbork and 1.4 for Zagłębie Lubin II (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kluczbork are averaging 1.96 points per game versus 1.38 for Zagłębie Lubin II. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +3.7%. This match finished 1-3.

Kluczbork vs Zagłębie Lubin II Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 3

Match Preview & Prediction

More Poland - III Liga - Group 3 Predictions