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Zagłębie Lubin II vs Karkonosze Jelenia Góra Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 3

Group III · Matchday 7 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 10:00

Zagłębie Lubin II

PPG 1.94 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWWW

UPCOMING

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra

PPG 0.95 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWLD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.6% vs bookmaker-implied 69.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-15.1%0-23.3%0-31.4%0-4+0.6%1 1-07.7%1-19.9%1-26.4%1-32.7%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.5%2-19.6%2-26.2%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-04.8%3-16.2%3-24.0%3-31.7%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-14.7%4+-23.0%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.5% 52.4% 1.91 -3.5%

Draw 23.0% 27.8% 3.60 -10.3%

Away win 26.5% 32.3% 3.10 -10.7%

Over 2.5 61.6% 69.9% 1.43 -11.9%

Over 3.5 40.2% 47.6% 2.10 -15.6%

BTTS 61.5% — — —

Home O1.5 55.8% 62.1% 1.61 -10.2%

Away O1.5 38.2% 48.1% 2.08 -20.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 14.6%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.5%

H 50% / xG 1.9-1.3 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 7.5%

#4 1–2 6.4%

#5 3–1 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zagłębie Lubin II1.9

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra1.3

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ZAGŁĘBIE LUBIN II · PPG 1.94

KARKONOSZE JELENIA GÓRA · PPG 0.95

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.66 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Zagłębie Lubin II (H) 50.5%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -3.5%

Draw 23.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -10.3%

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra (A) 26.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -10.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zagłębie Lubin II face Karkonosze Jelenia Góra in Poland - III Liga - Group 3 on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zagłębie Lubin II a 51% chance, the draw 23% and Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 27%, so Zagłębie Lubin II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Zagłębie Lubin II and 1.3 for Karkonosze Jelenia Góra (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zagłębie Lubin II are averaging 1.94 points per game versus 0.95 for Karkonosze Jelenia Góra.

Zagłębie Lubin II vs Karkonosze Jelenia Góra Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 3

Match Preview & Prediction

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