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Goczałkowice Zdrój vs Polonia Nysa Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 3

Group III · Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 11:00

Goczałkowice Zdrój

PPG 1.36 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLWD

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Polonia Nysa

PPG 1.01 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 59.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-17.9%0-25.0%0-32.1%0-4+0.9%1 1-09.4%1-111.9%1-27.5%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.1%2-19.0%2-25.7%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.6%3-14.5%3-22.9%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.4%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.7% 60.2% 1.66 -32.4%

Draw 24.4% 25.0% 4.00 -1.4%

Away win 34.8% 23.3% 4.30 +49.6%

Over 2.5 53.9% 60.6% 1.65 -11.1%

Over 3.5 31.7% 38.5% 2.60 -17.6%

BTTS 54.7% 59.5% 1.68 -8.1%

Home O1.5 40.0% 61.0% 1.64 -34.4%

Away O1.5 37.3% 32.3% 3.10 +15.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 14.6%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.7%

H 41% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 1–0 9.4%

#5 0–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Goczałkowice Zdrój1.5

Polonia Nysa1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

GOCZAŁKOWICE ZDRÓJ · PPG 1.36

POLONIA NYSA · PPG 1.01

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.24 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Goczałkowice Zdrój (H) 40.7%

ODDS 1.66 · IMPLIED 60.2% EV -32.4%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -1.4%

Polonia Nysa (A) 34.8%

ODDS 4.30 · IMPLIED 23.3% EV +49.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Goczałkowice Zdrój face Polonia Nysa in Poland - III Liga - Group 3 on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Goczałkowice Zdrój a 41% chance, the draw 24% and Polonia Nysa 35%, so Goczałkowice Zdrój are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Goczałkowice Zdrój and 1.3 for Polonia Nysa (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Goczałkowice Zdrój are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.01 for Polonia Nysa. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +18.9%. This match finished 2-0.

Goczałkowice Zdrój vs Polonia Nysa Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 3

Match Preview & Prediction

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