Today / Poland - III Liga - Group 3 / Zagłębie Lubin II vs Miedź Legnica II

Zagłębie Lubin II vs Miedź Legnica II Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 3

Group III · Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 10:00

Zagłębie Lubin II

PPG 1.79 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWWW

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Miedź Legnica II

PPG 1.04 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLLD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-13.1%0-22.1%0-31.0%0-4+0.5%1 1-05.5%1-17.5%1-25.2%1-32.4%1-4+1.1%2 2-06.6%2-19.1%2-26.2%2-32.9%2-4+1.3%3 3-05.3%3-17.3%3-25.0%3-32.3%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-05.7%4+-17.8%4+-25.4%4+-32.5%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.1% 52.4% 1.91 +5.2%

Draw 21.4% 26.7% 3.75 -11.8%

Away win 23.5% 34.5% 2.90 -19.1%

Over 2.5 67.3% 69.4% 1.44 -3.1%

Over 3.5 43.7% 51.5% 1.94 -15.2%

BTTS 63.2% 73.5% 1.36 -14.1%

Home O1.5 65.1% 64.5% 1.55 +0.9%

Away O1.5 41.2% 50.3% 1.99 -18.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 14.6%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.2%

H 55% / xG 2.4-1.4 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.5%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 3–1 7.3%

#4 2–2 6.2%

#5 1–2 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zagłębie Lubin II2.4

Miedź Legnica II1.4

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ZAGŁĘBIE LUBIN II · PPG 1.79

MIEDŹ LEGNICA II · PPG 1.04

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.04 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Zagłębie Lubin II (H) 55.1%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV +5.2%

Draw 21.4%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -11.8%

Miedź Legnica II (A) 23.5%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -19.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zagłębie Lubin II face Miedź Legnica II in Poland - III Liga - Group 3 on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zagłębie Lubin II a 55% chance, the draw 21% and Miedź Legnica II 24%, so Zagłębie Lubin II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Zagłębie Lubin II and 1.4 for Miedź Legnica II (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zagłębie Lubin II are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 1.04 for Miedź Legnica II. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +6.1%. This match finished 3-2.

Zagłębie Lubin II vs Miedź Legnica II Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 3

Match Preview & Prediction

More Poland - III Liga - Group 3 Predictions