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Sparta Katowice vs Polonia Nysa Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 3

Group III · Matchday 7 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 10:00

Sparta Katowice

PPG 2.24 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWWW

UPCOMING

Polonia Nysa

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 60.2% vs bookmaker-implied 64.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-14.3%0-22.0%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.2%1-19.2%1-24.2%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.9%2-19.9%2-24.5%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.8%3-17.0%3-23.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-06.8%4+-16.2%4+-22.8%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.4% 58.8% 1.70 -0.7%

Draw 20.7% 27.8% 3.60 -15.3%

Away win 20.8% 26.0% 3.85 -11.9%

Over 2.5 59.7% 66.7% 1.50 -10.4%

Over 3.5 36.4% 43.5% 2.30 -16.3%

BTTS 54.6% 67.6% 1.48 -19.2%

Home O1.5 60.2% 64.1% 1.56 -6.1%

Away O1.5 26.0% 39.2% 2.55 -20.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 14.6%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.6%

H 58% / xG 2.1-0.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.9%

#2 1–1 9.2%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.2%

#5 3–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sparta Katowice2.1

Polonia Nysa0.9

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SPARTA KATOWICE · PPG 2.24

POLONIA NYSA · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.23 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sparta Katowice (H) 58.4%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -0.7%

Draw 20.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -15.3%

Polonia Nysa (A) 20.8%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -11.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sparta Katowice face Polonia Nysa in Poland - III Liga - Group 3 on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sparta Katowice a 58% chance, the draw 21% and Polonia Nysa 21%, so Sparta Katowice are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Sparta Katowice and 0.9 for Polonia Nysa (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sparta Katowice are averaging 2.24 points per game versus 0.88 for Polonia Nysa.

Sparta Katowice vs Polonia Nysa Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 3

Match Preview & Prediction

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