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Sparta Katowice vs Goczałkowice Zdrój Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 3

Group III · Matchday 4 ·Wednesday, August 19, 2026, 15:00

Sparta Katowice

PPG 1.85 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWWW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Goczałkowice Zdrój

PPG 1.16 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLWD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.7% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-17.8%0-23.2%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.8%1-111.9%1-24.8%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.3%2-19.1%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.8%3-14.7%3-21.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-12.5%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.7% 52.4% 1.91 -1.3%

Draw 25.7% 28.6% 3.50 -6.0%

Away win 22.6% 30.8% 3.25 -15.9%

Over 2.5 50.1% 57.1% 1.75 -12.3%

Over 3.5 28.0% 36.0% 2.78 -13.3%

BTTS 49.1% 62.1% 1.61 -20.9%

Home O1.5 41.0% 52.6% 1.90 -22.1%

Away O1.5 22.5% 38.3% 2.61 -24.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 14.6%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.1%

H 52% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.8%

#2 1–1 11.9%

#3 2–0 11.3%

#4 0–0 9.7%

#5 2–1✓ 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sparta Katowice1.5

Goczałkowice Zdrój0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SPARTA KATOWICE · PPG 1.85

GOCZAŁKOWICE ZDRÓJ · PPG 1.16

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.72 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sparta Katowice (H) 51.7%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -1.3%

Draw 25.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -6.0%

Goczałkowice Zdrój (A) 22.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -15.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sparta Katowice face Goczałkowice Zdrój in Poland - III Liga - Group 3 on Wednesday, August 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sparta Katowice a 52% chance, the draw 26% and Goczałkowice Zdrój 23%, so Sparta Katowice are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Sparta Katowice and 0.8 for Goczałkowice Zdrój (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sparta Katowice are averaging 1.85 points per game versus 1.16 for Goczałkowice Zdrój. This match finished 2-1.

Sparta Katowice vs Goczałkowice Zdrój Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 3

Match Preview & Prediction

More Poland - III Liga - Group 3 Predictions