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K. Lierse S.K. vs Liège Prediction— Belgium - Challenger Pro League

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 14:00

K. Lierse S.K.

PPG 1.58 · HOME

LAST 5

LWD ··

UPCOMING

Liège

PPG 1.68 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWL ··

// Model verdict

BTTS 61% chance

Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-18.2%0-25.7%0-32.6%0-4+1.2%1 1-08.6%1-111.8%1-28.2%1-33.8%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.2%2-18.5%2-25.9%2-32.7%2-4+1.3%3 3-03.0%3-14.1%3-22.8%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.0%4+-21.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.3% 40.0% 2.50 -1.8%

Draw 24.4% 32.3% 3.10 -14.6%

Away win 36.2% 40.0% 2.50 -9.5%

Over 2.5 57.8% 57.1% 1.75 +1.1%

Over 3.5 35.4% 36.4% 2.75 -2.6%

BTTS 59.0% 61.7% 1.62 -4.4%

Home O1.5 39.9% 44.4% 2.25 -10.2%

Away O1.5 42.2% 44.4% 2.25 -5.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob59.0%

H 39% / xG 1.4-1.4 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 1–2 8.2%

#4 1–0 8.6%

#5 0–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

K. Lierse S.K.1.4

Liège1.4

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.8% · O3.5 PROB 35.4%

Form & verdict PPG

K. LIERSE S.K. · PPG 1.58

LIÈGE · PPG 1.68

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

61%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.06 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

K. Lierse S.K. (H) 39.3%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -1.8%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -14.6%

Liège (A) 36.2%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -9.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

K. Lierse S.K. face Liège in Belgium - Challenger Pro League on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives K. Lierse S.K. a 39% chance, the draw 24% and Liège 36%, so K. Lierse S.K. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for K. Lierse S.K. and 1.4 for Liège (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, K. Lierse S.K. are averaging 1.58 points per game versus 1.68 for Liège. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +1.1%.

K. Lierse S.K. vs Liège Prediction— Belgium - Challenger Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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