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Dender vs Seraing United Prediction— Belgium - Challenger Pro League

Matchday 4 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 18:00

Dender

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

LWW ··

UPCOMING

Seraing United

PPG 0.98 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLD ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-17.4%0-24.0%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.8%1-111.8%1-26.5%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.6%2-19.5%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.6%3-15.1%3-22.8%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.9%4+-21.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.2% 64.5% 1.55 -22.2%

Draw 24.2% 26.0% 3.85 -4.1%

Away win 25.6% 18.5% 5.40 +22.9%

Over 2.5 53.8% 57.8% 1.73 -6.9%

Over 3.5 31.6% 35.7% 2.80 -11.5%

BTTS 54.6% 57.8% 1.73 -5.5%

Home O1.5 47.9% 61.7% 1.62 -22.4%

Away O1.5 33.2% 27.0% 3.70 +22.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 50% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 10.8%

#4 2–0 8.6%

#5 0–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dender1.6

Seraing United1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

DENDER · PPG 1.75

SERAING UNITED · PPG 0.98

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.51 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Dender (H) 50.2%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -22.2%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -4.1%

Seraing United (A) 25.6%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +22.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dender face Seraing United in Belgium - Challenger Pro League on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dender a 50% chance, the draw 24% and Seraing United 26%, so Dender are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Dender and 1.1 for Seraing United (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dender are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.98 for Seraing United. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +34.1%.

Dender vs Seraing United Prediction— Belgium - Challenger Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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