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KRC Genk II vs Sporting Hasselt Prediction— Belgium - Challenger Pro League

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 18:00

KRC Genk II

PPG 0.98 · HOME

LAST 5

LLW ··

UPCOMING

Sporting Hasselt

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWL ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-17.7%0-25.9%0-33.0%0-4+1.6%1 1-07.3%1-111.2%1-28.6%1-34.4%1-4+2.4%2 2-05.3%2-18.2%2-26.3%2-33.2%2-4+1.7%3 3-02.6%3-14.0%3-23.0%3-31.6%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.0%4+-21.5%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.7% 34.5% 2.90 +6.4%

Draw 24.5% 27.4% 3.65 -6.3%

Away win 38.8% 46.5% 2.15 -16.6%

Over 2.5 59.7% 61.7% 1.62 -3.3%

Over 3.5 36.5% 39.2% 2.55 -6.9%

BTTS 61.5% 66.7% 1.50 -7.8%

Home O1.5 39.9% 44.4% 2.25 -10.2%

Away O1.5 47.9% 54.1% 1.85 -11.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.5%

A 39% / xG 1.5-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1 8.2%

#4 0–1 7.7%

#5 0–2 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

KRC Genk II1.5

Sporting Hasselt1.5

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

KRC GENK II · PPG 0.98

SPORTING HASSELT · PPG 1.75

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.08 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

KRC Genk II (H) 36.7%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +6.4%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -6.3%

Sporting Hasselt (A) 38.8%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -16.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

KRC Genk II face Sporting Hasselt in Belgium - Challenger Pro League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives KRC Genk II a 37% chance, the draw 25% and Sporting Hasselt 39%, so Sporting Hasselt are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for KRC Genk II and 1.5 for Sporting Hasselt (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, KRC Genk II are averaging 0.98 points per game versus 1.75 for Sporting Hasselt. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +1.5%.

KRC Genk II vs Sporting Hasselt Prediction— Belgium - Challenger Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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