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FK Tobol Kostanay vs Ulytau Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Matchday 25 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 14:00

FK Tobol Kostanay

PPG 2.30 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWL

UPCOMING

Ulytau

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDLW

// Model verdict

Home 51% chance

Model probability 51.1% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.0%0-18.3%0-23.1%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.0%1-112.0%1-24.5%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.7%2-18.7%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.7%3-14.2%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-12.1%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.1% 51.3% 1.95 -0.4%

Draw 26.3% 29.4% 3.40 -6.3%

Away win 22.6% 30.3% 3.30 -15.3%

Over 2.5 50.4% 51.3% 1.95 -1.7%

Over 3.5 28.7% 29.9% 3.34 -2.5%

BTTS 49.9% 56.5% 1.77 -11.7%

Home O1.5 39.9% 49.3% 2.03 -19.0%

Away O1.5 19.7% 34.6% 2.89 -25.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 28.4%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.9%

H 51% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.0%

#2 1–1 12.0%

#3 2–0 11.7%

#4 0–0 11.0%

#5 2–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FK Tobol Kostanay1.5

Ulytau0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FK TOBOL KOSTANAY · PPG 2.30

ULYTAU · PPG 0.73

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

51%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.70 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

FK Tobol Kostanay (H) 51.1%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -0.4%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -6.3%

Ulytau (A) 22.6%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -15.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

FK Tobol Kostanay face Ulytau in Kazakhstan - Premier League on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FK Tobol Kostanay a 51% chance, the draw 26% and Ulytau 23%, so FK Tobol Kostanay are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for FK Tobol Kostanay and 0.8 for Ulytau (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FK Tobol Kostanay are averaging 2.30 points per game versus 0.73 for Ulytau.

FK Tobol Kostanay vs Ulytau Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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