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Kyzyl-Zhar vs Atyrau Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Matchday 25 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Kyzyl-Zhar

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDDL

UPCOMING

Atyrau

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.0%0-19.5%0-23.8%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.9%1-112.6%1-25.0%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.6%2-18.4%2-23.3%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.7%3-13.7%3-21.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-11.6%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.0% 46.5% 2.15 +1.1%

Draw 27.4% 30.3% 3.30 -5.8%

Away win 25.5% 32.3% 3.10 -12.6%

Over 2.5 47.2% 48.8% 2.05 -3.2%

Over 3.5 27.0% 28.6% 3.50 -3.3%

BTTS 49.9% 57.8% 1.73 -13.7%

Home O1.5 38.7% 46.1% 2.17 -16.0%

Away O1.5 23.1% 36.4% 2.75 -21.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 28.4%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.9%

H 47% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.9%

#2 1–1 12.6%

#3 0–0 12.0%

#4 2–0 10.6%

#5 0–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kyzyl-Zhar1.3

Atyrau0.8

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.2% · O3.5 PROB 27.0%

Form & verdict PPG

KYZYL-ZHAR · PPG 1.25

ATYRAU · PPG 0.90

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.53 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Kyzyl-Zhar (H) 47.0%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +1.1%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -5.8%

Atyrau (A) 25.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -12.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kyzyl-Zhar face Atyrau in Kazakhstan - Premier League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kyzyl-Zhar a 47% chance, the draw 27% and Atyrau 26%, so Kyzyl-Zhar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Kyzyl-Zhar and 0.8 for Atyrau (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kyzyl-Zhar are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.90 for Atyrau.

Kyzyl-Zhar vs Atyrau Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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