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FC Astana vs Yelimay Semey Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Matchday 25 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 13:00

FC Astana

PPG 2.82 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDW

UPCOMING

Yelimay Semey

PPG 1.55 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 60% chance

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.1% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-14.3%0-22.0%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.7%1-19.2%1-24.4%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.4%2-19.9%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.5%3-17.1%3-23.4%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-06.6%4+-16.2%4+-23.0%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.3% 55.6% 1.80 +3.1%

Draw 21.3% 27.8% 3.60 -14.0%

Away win 21.5% 27.8% 3.60 -13.6%

Over 2.5 61.1% 59.9% 1.67 +2.0%

Over 3.5 38.2% 40.2% 2.49 -4.9%

BTTS 55.9% 63.3% 1.58 -11.7%

Home O1.5 61.0% 58.1% 1.72 +4.9%

Away O1.5 26.1% 35.7% 2.80 -16.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 28.4%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.9%

H 57% / xG 2.1-0.9 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.2%

#2 2–0 10.4%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 9.7%

#5 3–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Astana2.1

Yelimay Semey0.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.1% · O3.5 PROB 38.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FC ASTANA · PPG 2.82

YELIMAY SEMEY · PPG 1.55

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

60%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.20 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

FC Astana (H) 57.3%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV +3.1%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -14.0%

Yelimay Semey (A) 21.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -13.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Astana face Yelimay Semey in Kazakhstan - Premier League on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Astana a 57% chance, the draw 21% and Yelimay Semey 22%, so FC Astana are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for FC Astana and 0.9 for Yelimay Semey (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Astana are averaging 2.82 points per game versus 1.55 for Yelimay Semey. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +16.1%.

FC Astana vs Yelimay Semey Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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