Today / Kazakhstan - Premier League / Kaspiy vs Kairat Almaty

Kaspiy vs Kairat Almaty Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Matchday 25 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 12:00

Kaspiy

PPG 1.64 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDDW

UPCOMING

Kairat Almaty

PPG 2.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-112.5%0-29.7%0-35.0%0-4+2.8%1 1-07.7%1-112.1%1-29.4%1-34.9%1-4+2.7%2 2-03.8%2-15.8%2-24.5%2-32.4%2-4+1.3%3 3-01.2%3-11.9%3-21.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.6%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.9% 13.3% 7.50 +52.0%

Draw 25.1% 22.7% 4.40 +6.3%

Away win 50.0% 74.1% 1.35 -32.5%

Over 2.5 51.5% 60.6% 1.65 -15.0%

Over 3.5 31.6% 38.5% 2.60 -17.8%

BTTS 52.9% 54.6% 1.83 -3.2%

Home O1.5 30.8% 23.1% 4.33 +33.4%

Away O1.5 47.9% 70.4% 1.42 -32.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 28.4%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob52.9%

A 50% / xG 1.0-1.6 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 0–1 12.5%

#3 0–2 9.7%

#4 1–2 9.4%

#5 0–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kaspiy1.0

Kairat Almaty1.6

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

KASPIY · PPG 1.64

KAIRAT ALMATY · PPG 2.25

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.59 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Kaspiy (H) 24.9%

ODDS 7.50 · IMPLIED 13.3% EV +52.0%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +6.3%

Kairat Almaty (A) 50.0%

ODDS 1.35 · IMPLIED 74.1% EV -32.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kaspiy face Kairat Almaty in Kazakhstan - Premier League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kaspiy a 25% chance, the draw 25% and Kairat Almaty 50%, so Kairat Almaty are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Kaspiy and 1.6 for Kairat Almaty (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kaspiy are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 2.25 for Kairat Almaty. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +60.2%.

Kaspiy vs Kairat Almaty Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Kazakhstan - Premier League Predictions