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Zhetysu vs Irtysh Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Matchday 25 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 13:00

Zhetysu

PPG 0.90 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLLL

UPCOMING

Irtysh

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.4% vs bookmaker-implied 61.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-19.4%0-24.9%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.2%1-112.8%1-26.7%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.3%2-18.7%2-24.6%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.8%3-14.0%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.8%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.8% 43.9% 2.28 -7.0%

Draw 24.9% 31.7% 3.15 -12.9%

Away win 34.3% 37.7% 2.65 -9.1%

Over 2.5 51.9% 53.8% 1.86 -3.5%

Over 3.5 31.6% 31.7% 3.15 -0.5%

BTTS 53.4% 61.0% 1.64 -12.4%

Home O1.5 39.5% 46.5% 2.15 -15.1%

Away O1.5 32.5% 42.0% 2.38 -22.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 28.4%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.4%

H 41% / xG 1.4-1.0 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 1–0 12.2%

#3 0–1 9.4%

#4 0–0 9.0%

#5 1–2 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zhetysu1.4

Irtysh1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ZHETYSU · PPG 0.90

IRTYSH · PPG 0.73

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.32, combined xG 2.41 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Zhetysu (H) 40.8%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV -7.0%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -12.9%

Irtysh (A) 34.3%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -9.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zhetysu face Irtysh in Kazakhstan - Premier League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zhetysu a 41% chance, the draw 25% and Irtysh 34%, so Zhetysu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Zhetysu and 1.0 for Irtysh (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zhetysu are averaging 0.90 points per game versus 0.73 for Irtysh. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +11.3%.

Zhetysu vs Irtysh Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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