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Okzhetpes vs Ordabasy Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Matchday 25 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 11:00

Okzhetpes

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLWW

UPCOMING

Ordabasy

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-110.1%0-27.5%0-33.7%0-4+1.9%1 1-08.1%1-112.1%1-29.0%1-34.5%1-4+2.3%2 2-04.9%2-17.3%2-25.4%2-32.7%2-4+1.4%3 3-02.0%3-12.9%3-22.2%3-31.1%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.1%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.7% 25.0% 4.00 +22.8%

Draw 24.3% 27.4% 3.65 -6.8%

Away win 45.0% 61.3% 1.63 -26.7%

Over 2.5 53.8% 63.7% 1.57 -15.5%

Over 3.5 33.7% 41.7% 2.40 -19.1%

BTTS 55.9% 65.4% 1.53 -14.5%

Home O1.5 33.0% 34.5% 2.90 -4.3%

Away O1.5 42.2% 63.3% 1.58 -33.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 28.4%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob55.9%

A 45% / xG 1.2-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 0–1 10.1%

#4 0–2 7.5%

#5 2–1 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Okzhetpes1.2

Ordabasy1.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 33.7%

Form & verdict PPG

OKZHETPES · PPG 2.00

ORDABASY · PPG 2.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.29 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Okzhetpes (H) 30.7%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +22.8%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -6.8%

Ordabasy (A) 45.0%

ODDS 1.63 · IMPLIED 61.3% EV -26.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Okzhetpes face Ordabasy in Kazakhstan - Premier League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Okzhetpes a 31% chance, the draw 24% and Ordabasy 45%, so Ordabasy are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Okzhetpes and 1.5 for Ordabasy (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Okzhetpes are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.00 for Ordabasy. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +15.6%.

Okzhetpes vs Ordabasy Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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