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Jonkopings Sodra vs Tvååker Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra · Matchday 20 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 14:00

Jonkopings Sodra

PPG 2.22 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDDW

UPCOMING

Tvååker

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWWD

// Model verdict

Home 64% chance

Model probability 50.9% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-17.4%0-23.1%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.9%1-111.8%1-25.0%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.0%2-19.4%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.9%3-15.0%3-22.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-12.8%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.9% 69.4% 1.44 -26.7%

Draw 24.9% 26.3% 3.80 -3.2%

Away win 24.2% 18.2% 5.50 +19.9%

Over 2.5 50.4% 59.9% 1.67 -15.8%

Over 3.5 28.7% 38.2% 2.62 -14.9%

BTTS 50.6% 57.1% 1.75 -11.5%

Home O1.5 47.6% 65.4% 1.53 -27.2%

Away O1.5 24.2% 25.0% 4.00 -1.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 90 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -0.4%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob50.6%

H 51% / xG 1.6-0.8 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 1–0 13.9%

#3 2–0 11.0%

#4 0–0 8.7%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jonkopings Sodra1.6

Tvååker0.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

JONKOPINGS SODRA · PPG 2.22

TVÅÅKER · PPG 1.56

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

64%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.74 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Jonkopings Sodra (H) 50.9%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -26.7%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -3.2%

Tvååker (A) 24.2%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +19.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jonkopings Sodra face Tvååker in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jonkopings Sodra a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Tvååker 24%, so Jonkopings Sodra are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Jonkopings Sodra and 0.8 for Tvååker (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jonkopings Sodra are averaging 2.22 points per game versus 1.56 for Tvååker. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +20.4%.

Jonkopings Sodra vs Tvååker Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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