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Trollhättan vs Eskilsminne Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra · Matchday 20 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Trollhättan

PPG 0.80 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWL

UPCOMING

Eskilsminne

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWDL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-17.2%0-25.4%0-32.7%0-4+1.4%1 1-07.4%1-111.1%1-28.3%1-34.2%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.7%2-18.5%2-26.4%2-33.2%2-4+1.7%3 3-02.9%3-14.3%3-23.3%3-31.6%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.3%4+-21.8%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.8% 54.1% 1.85 -26.4%

Draw 24.2% 28.6% 3.50 -9.2%

Away win 36.0% 30.3% 3.30 +18.8%

Over 2.5 59.7% 63.7% 1.57 -6.3%

Over 3.5 36.8% 42.0% 2.38 -12.4%

BTTS 61.5% 66.7% 1.50 -7.8%

Home O1.5 41.7% 57.8% 1.73 -27.9%

Away O1.5 43.4% 42.0% 2.38 +3.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -0.4%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.5%

H 40% / xG 1.5-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 1–2 8.3%

#4 1–0 7.4%

#5 2–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Trollhättan1.5

Eskilsminne1.5

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

TROLLHÄTTAN · PPG 0.80

ESKILSMINNE · PPG 1.11

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.03 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Trollhättan (H) 39.8%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -26.4%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.2%

Eskilsminne (A) 36.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +18.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Trollhättan face Eskilsminne in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Trollhättan a 40% chance, the draw 24% and Eskilsminne 36%, so Trollhättan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Trollhättan and 1.5 for Eskilsminne (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Trollhättan are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 1.11 for Eskilsminne. The best value bet our model finds is RES_A/O15, with an expected value of +24.5%.

Trollhättan vs Eskilsminne Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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