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Utsikten vs Lund Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra · Matchday 20 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 15:00

Utsikten

PPG 0.22 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDDL

UPCOMING

Lund

PPG 1.45 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLWW

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 70.3% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-18.3%0-210.5%0-38.8%0-4+10.2%1 1-02.9%1-17.4%1-29.3%1-37.8%1-4+9.1%2 2-01.3%2-13.3%2-24.1%2-33.5%2-4+4.0%3 3-00.4%3-11.0%3-21.2%3-31.0%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.3%4+-20.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.0% 16.7% 6.00 -13.2%

Draw 16.8% 25.0% 4.00 -19.7%

Away win 70.3% 71.4% 1.40 -1.6%

Over 2.5 66.8% 65.4% 1.53 +2.2%

Over 3.5 44.9% 44.4% 2.25 +1.0%

BTTS 57.4% 59.9% 1.67 -4.1%

Home O1.5 30.8% 26.7% 3.75 +15.5%

Away O1.5 69.2% 69.4% 1.44 -0.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -0.4%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 64%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob57.4%

A 70% / xG 0.9-2.5 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 10.5%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 0–3 8.8%

#4 1–1 7.4%

#5 1–3 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Utsikten0.9

Lund2.5

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.8% · O3.5 PROB 44.9%

Form & verdict PPG

UTSIKTEN · PPG 0.22

LUND · PPG 1.45

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

90%

UPSET_VALUE

xG gap -1.64 for Away, form 0.22 vs 1.45

Win probability 1X2

Utsikten (H) 13.0%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -13.2%

Draw 16.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -19.7%

Lund (A) 70.3%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -1.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Utsikten face Lund in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Utsikten a 13% chance, the draw 17% and Lund 70%, so Lund are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Utsikten and 2.5 for Lund (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Utsikten are averaging 0.22 points per game versus 1.45 for Lund. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +15.5%.

Utsikten vs Lund Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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