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Skövde AIK vs Trelleborg Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra · Matchday 20 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 11:00

Skövde AIK

PPG 1.56 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLWD

UPCOMING

Trelleborg

PPG 2.22 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 58% chance

Combined xG of 2.5 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.8% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-113.4%0-211.0%0-36.1%0-4+3.6%1 1-07.0%1-111.6%1-29.5%1-35.2%1-4+3.1%2 2-03.0%2-15.0%2-24.1%2-32.3%2-4+1.3%3 3-00.9%3-11.4%3-21.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.9% 20.8% 4.80 +14.6%

Draw 24.7% 27.8% 3.60 -6.7%

Away win 49.4% 63.7% 1.57 -22.4%

Over 2.5 53.8% 59.9% 1.67 -10.2%

Over 3.5 31.6% 38.2% 2.62 -17.2%

BTTS 52.9% 59.9% 1.67 -11.7%

Home O1.5 30.8% 28.6% 3.50 +7.8%

Away O1.5 47.9% 61.7% 1.62 -22.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 90 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -0.4%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob52.9%

A 49% / xG 0.9-1.6 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 0–1 13.4%

#3 0–2 11.0%

#4 0–0 8.1%

#5 1–2 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Skövde AIK0.9

Trelleborg1.6

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SKÖVDE AIK · PPG 1.56

TRELLEBORG · PPG 2.22

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

Chance this pick lands

58%

DANGER

xG gap -0.78 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Skövde AIK (H) 25.9%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +14.6%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -6.7%

Trelleborg (A) 49.4%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -22.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Skövde AIK face Trelleborg in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Skövde AIK a 26% chance, the draw 25% and Trelleborg 49%, so Trelleborg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Skövde AIK and 1.6 for Trelleborg (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Skövde AIK are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 2.22 for Trelleborg. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +7.8%.

Skövde AIK vs Trelleborg Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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