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Olympic vs Angelholms FF Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra · Matchday 20 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 11:00

Olympic

PPG 1.60 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDLL

UPCOMING

Angelholms FF

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-14.7%0-23.7%0-32.0%0-4+1.1%1 1-05.7%1-19.1%1-27.2%1-33.8%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.5%2-18.8%2-27.0%2-33.7%2-4+2.1%3 3-03.6%3-15.7%3-24.5%3-32.4%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-14.3%4+-23.4%4+-31.8%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.9% 48.8% 2.05 -10.0%

Draw 21.3% 30.3% 3.30 -17.8%

Away win 34.8% 34.5% 2.90 +0.9%

Over 2.5 68.4% 65.4% 1.53 +4.7%

Over 3.5 45.0% 44.4% 2.25 +1.3%

BTTS 63.5% 69.4% 1.44 -8.6%

Home O1.5 55.8% 55.6% 1.80 +0.4%

Away O1.5 47.9% 47.6% 2.10 +0.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -0.4%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.5%

H 44% / xG 1.9-1.6 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 7.2%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 3–1 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Olympic1.9

Angelholms FF1.6

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

OLYMPIC · PPG 1.60

ANGELHOLMS FF · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.35 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Olympic (H) 43.9%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -10.0%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -17.8%

Angelholms FF (A) 34.8%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +0.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Olympic face Angelholms FF in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Olympic a 44% chance, the draw 21% and Angelholms FF 35%, so Olympic are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Olympic and 1.6 for Angelholms FF (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Olympic are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.00 for Angelholms FF. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +7.1%.

Olympic vs Angelholms FF Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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