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Hässleholms IF vs Kristianstad Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra · Matchday 20 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 11:00

Hässleholms IF

PPG 1.78 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

UPCOMING

Kristianstad

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-14.3%0-22.0%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.9%1-19.3%1-24.3%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.6%2-19.9%2-24.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.5%3-17.0%3-23.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-06.6%4+-16.2%4+-22.9%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.3% 57.8% 1.73 -0.9%

Draw 21.3% 29.4% 3.40 -16.6%

Away win 21.4% 25.6% 3.90 -9.9%

Over 2.5 61.4% 60.6% 1.65 +1.3%

Over 3.5 39.8% 38.2% 2.62 +4.3%

BTTS 55.9% 63.7% 1.57 -12.2%

Home O1.5 60.2% 59.9% 1.67 +0.5%

Away O1.5 26.1% 33.3% 3.00 -13.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -0.4%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.9%

H 57% / xG 2.1-0.9 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 2–0 10.6%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 9.9%

#5 3–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hässleholms IF2.1

Kristianstad0.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.8%

Form & verdict PPG

HÄSSLEHOLMS IF · PPG 1.78

KRISTIANSTAD · PPG 0.89

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.20 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Hässleholms IF (H) 57.3%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -0.9%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -16.6%

Kristianstad (A) 21.4%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -9.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hässleholms IF face Kristianstad in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hässleholms IF a 57% chance, the draw 21% and Kristianstad 21%, so Hässleholms IF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Hässleholms IF and 0.9 for Kristianstad (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hässleholms IF are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 0.89 for Kristianstad. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +11.1%.

Hässleholms IF vs Kristianstad Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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