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Merelbeke vs Cercle Brugge II Prediction— Belgium - First Amateur Division

VV · Matchday 2 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 13:00

Merelbeke

PPG 1.56 · HOME

LAST 5

W ····

UPCOMING

Cercle Brugge II

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

LAST 5

D ····

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 61% chance

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-15.8%0-24.1%0-31.9%0-4+0.9%1 1-07.3%1-110.3%1-27.3%1-33.5%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.5%2-19.2%2-26.5%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-03.8%3-15.4%3-23.9%3-31.8%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.6%4+-22.6%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.6% 50.0% 2.00 -8.8%

Draw 24.7% 29.4% 3.40 -9.6%

Away win 29.8% 33.3% 3.00 -6.4%

Over 2.5 55.9% 62.5% 1.60 -10.6%

Over 3.5 36.4% 45.2% 2.21 -19.6%

BTTS 55.9% 69.4% 1.44 -19.5%

Home O1.5 49.9% 60.2% 1.66 -17.2%

Away O1.5 42.2% 47.2% 2.12 -10.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob55.9%

H 46% / xG 1.8-1.4 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–2 7.3%

#4 2–0 6.5%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Merelbeke1.8

Cercle Brugge II1.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.9% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

MERELBEKE · PPG 1.56

CERCLE BRUGGE II · PPG 1.13

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

61%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.36 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Merelbeke (H) 45.6%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -8.8%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -9.6%

Cercle Brugge II (A) 29.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -6.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Merelbeke face Cercle Brugge II in Belgium - First Amateur Division on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Merelbeke a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Cercle Brugge II 30%, so Merelbeke are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Merelbeke and 1.4 for Cercle Brugge II (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Merelbeke are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.13 for Cercle Brugge II.

Merelbeke vs Cercle Brugge II Prediction— Belgium - First Amateur Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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