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Standard Liège II vs Meux Prediction— Belgium - First Amateur Division

ACFF · Matchday 3 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 13:00

Standard Liège II

PPG 1.08 · HOME

LAST 5

DL ···

UPCOMING

Meux

PPG 1.35 · AWAY

LAST 5

DW ···

// Model verdict

BTTS 58% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-18.0%0-25.6%0-32.6%0-4+1.2%1 1-08.4%1-111.7%1-28.1%1-33.8%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.2%2-18.6%2-26.0%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-03.0%3-14.2%3-22.9%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.1%4+-21.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.3% 40.0% 2.50 -9.3%

Draw 27.9% 34.5% 2.90 -11.5%

Away win 35.8% 40.0% 2.50 -10.5%

Over 2.5 51.3% 55.6% 1.80 -7.7%

Over 3.5 31.6% 32.8% 3.05 -3.6%

BTTS 52.9% 60.6% 1.65 -12.7%

Home O1.5 39.9% 43.9% 2.28 -9.0%

Away O1.5 42.2% 45.2% 2.21 -6.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob52.9%

H 36% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–2 8.1%

#3 2–1 8.6%

#4 0–0 5.8%

#5 0–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Standard Liège II1.5

Meux1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.3% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

STANDARD LIÈGE II · PPG 1.08

MEUX · PPG 1.35

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

58%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.07 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Standard Liège II (H) 36.3%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -9.3%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -11.5%

Meux (A) 35.8%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -10.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Standard Liège II face Meux in Belgium - First Amateur Division on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Standard Liège II a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Meux 36%, so Standard Liège II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Standard Liège II and 1.4 for Meux (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Standard Liège II are averaging 1.08 points per game versus 1.35 for Meux. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +3.0%.

Standard Liège II vs Meux Prediction— Belgium - First Amateur Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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