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Oud-Heverlee Leuven II vs Tienen Prediction— Belgium - First Amateur Division

VV · Matchday 2 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 13:00

Oud-Heverlee Leuven II

PPG 1.30 · HOME

LAST 5

L ····

UPCOMING

Tienen

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

L ····

// Model verdict

BTTS 67% chance

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-15.5%0-24.2%0-32.2%0-4+1.2%1 1-06.4%1-19.9%1-27.6%1-33.9%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.8%2-18.8%2-26.8%2-33.5%2-4+1.9%3 3-03.4%3-15.3%3-24.1%3-32.1%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-13.6%4+-22.7%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.9% 50.0% 2.00 -14.2%

Draw 23.2% 30.3% 3.30 -14.1%

Away win 33.9% 32.3% 3.10 +5.1%

Over 2.5 59.8% 62.5% 1.60 -4.3%

Over 3.5 37.7% 42.9% 2.33 -12.2%

BTTS 61.5% 69.4% 1.44 -11.4%

Home O1.5 49.9% 57.1% 1.75 -12.7%

Away O1.5 47.9% 43.3% 2.31 +10.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.5%

H 43% / xG 1.8-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 7.6%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 2–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oud-Heverlee Leuven II1.8

Tienen1.5

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.8% · O3.5 PROB 37.7%

Form & verdict PPG

OUD-HEVERLEE LEUVEN II · PPG 1.30

TIENEN · PPG 1.17

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

67%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.26 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Oud-Heverlee Leuven II (H) 42.9%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -14.2%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -14.1%

Tienen (A) 33.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +5.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Oud-Heverlee Leuven II face Tienen in Belgium - First Amateur Division on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oud-Heverlee Leuven II a 43% chance, the draw 23% and Tienen 34%, so Oud-Heverlee Leuven II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Oud-Heverlee Leuven II and 1.5 for Tienen (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oud-Heverlee Leuven II are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 1.17 for Tienen. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +10.7%.

Oud-Heverlee Leuven II vs Tienen Prediction— Belgium - First Amateur Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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