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Spouwen-Mopertingen vs Houtvenne Prediction— Belgium - First Amateur Division

VV · Matchday 2 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 13:00

Spouwen-Mopertingen

PPG 1.43 · HOME

LAST 5

D ····

UPCOMING

Houtvenne

PPG 1.35 · AWAY

LAST 5

W ····

// Model verdict

BTTS 61% chance

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-15.8%0-24.2%0-32.0%0-4+1.0%1 1-07.1%1-110.3%1-27.4%1-33.6%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.3%2-19.1%2-26.6%2-33.2%2-4+1.6%3 3-03.7%3-15.3%3-23.9%3-31.9%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-13.5%4+-22.5%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.9% 52.4% 1.91 -16.2%

Draw 25.1% 27.8% 3.60 -5.8%

Away win 31.0% 33.3% 3.00 -7.0%

Over 2.5 54.8% 66.7% 1.50 -17.8%

Over 3.5 36.4% 42.0% 2.38 -13.4%

BTTS 55.9% 63.7% 1.57 -12.2%

Home O1.5 49.9% 59.5% 1.68 -16.2%

Away O1.5 42.2% 38.9% 2.57 +8.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob55.9%

H 44% / xG 1.8-1.4 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–2 7.4%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 2–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Spouwen-Mopertingen1.8

Houtvenne1.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.8% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SPOUWEN-MOPERTINGEN · PPG 1.43

HOUTVENNE · PPG 1.35

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

61%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.32 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Spouwen-Mopertingen (H) 43.9%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -16.2%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -5.8%

Houtvenne (A) 31.0%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -7.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Spouwen-Mopertingen face Houtvenne in Belgium - First Amateur Division on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Spouwen-Mopertingen a 44% chance, the draw 25% and Houtvenne 31%, so Spouwen-Mopertingen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Spouwen-Mopertingen and 1.4 for Houtvenne (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Spouwen-Mopertingen are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.35 for Houtvenne. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +8.5%.

Spouwen-Mopertingen vs Houtvenne Prediction— Belgium - First Amateur Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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