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Dessel Sport vs Hoogstraten Prediction— Belgium - First Amateur Division

VV · Matchday 2 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 17:30

Dessel Sport

PPG 1.70 · HOME

LAST 5

WD ···

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Hoogstraten

PPG 1.48 · AWAY

LAST 5

LD ···

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 65% chance

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-14.8%0-23.8%0-32.0%0-4+1.1%1 1-05.8%1-19.1%1-27.3%1-33.8%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.5%2-18.8%2-27.0%2-33.7%2-4+2.1%3 3-03.5%3-15.6%3-24.5%3-32.4%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-14.2%4+-23.3%4+-31.8%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.3% 51.3% 1.95 -9.7%

Draw 23.9% 29.4% 3.40 -11.2%

Away win 29.8% 32.3% 3.10 -4.6%

Over 2.5 63.1% 65.4% 1.53 -3.5%

Over 3.5 40.4% 47.6% 2.10 -15.2%

BTTS 61.5% 71.4% 1.40 -13.9%

Home O1.5 55.8% 60.2% 1.66 -7.4%

Away O1.5 47.9% 48.1% 2.08 -0.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob61.5%

H 46% / xG 1.9-1.6 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 9.1%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 7.3%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 3–1 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dessel Sport1.9

Hoogstraten1.6

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 40.4%

Form & verdict PPG

DESSEL SPORT · PPG 1.70

HOOGSTRATEN · PPG 1.48

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

65%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.33 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Dessel Sport (H) 46.3%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -9.7%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -11.2%

Hoogstraten (A) 29.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -4.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dessel Sport face Hoogstraten in Belgium - First Amateur Division on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dessel Sport a 46% chance, the draw 24% and Hoogstraten 30%, so Dessel Sport are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Dessel Sport and 1.6 for Hoogstraten (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dessel Sport are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 1.48 for Hoogstraten. This match finished 1-1.

Dessel Sport vs Hoogstraten Prediction— Belgium - First Amateur Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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