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Tubize vs Rochefort Prediction— Belgium - First Amateur Division

ACFF · Matchday 3 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 18:00

Tubize

PPG 2.16 · HOME

LAST 5

WW ···

UPCOMING

Rochefort

PPG 1.51 · AWAY

LAST 5

WW ···

// Model verdict

BTTS 60% chance

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-16.2%0-23.9%0-31.6%0-4+0.7%1 1-08.6%1-110.8%1-26.8%1-32.9%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.6%2-19.5%2-26.0%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.4%3-15.6%3-23.5%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-13.7%4+-22.3%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.3% 55.6% 1.80 -16.7%

Draw 24.3% 26.7% 3.75 -5.3%

Away win 29.4% 29.4% 3.40 -0.0%

Over 2.5 53.8% 62.5% 1.60 -13.9%

Over 3.5 34.2% 38.2% 2.62 -10.4%

BTTS 55.9% 61.7% 1.62 -9.4%

Home O1.5 49.9% 59.9% 1.67 -16.7%

Away O1.5 36.8% 32.9% 3.04 +11.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.9%

H 46% / xG 1.8-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–2 6.8%

#4 2–0 7.6%

#5 1–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tubize1.8

Rochefort1.3

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 34.2%

Form & verdict PPG

TUBIZE · PPG 2.16

ROCHEFORT · PPG 1.51

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

60%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.50 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Tubize (H) 46.3%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -16.7%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -5.3%

Rochefort (A) 29.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -0.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tubize face Rochefort in Belgium - First Amateur Division on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tubize a 46% chance, the draw 24% and Rochefort 29%, so Tubize are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Tubize and 1.3 for Rochefort (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tubize are averaging 2.16 points per game versus 1.51 for Rochefort. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +11.9%.

Tubize vs Rochefort Prediction— Belgium - First Amateur Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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