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Union Saint-Gilloise II vs Habay-la-Neuve Prediction— Belgium - First Amateur Division

ACFF · Matchday 3 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 17:30

Union Saint-Gilloise II

PPG 1.15 · HOME

LAST 5

LL ···

UPCOMING

Habay-la-Neuve

PPG 0.98 · AWAY

LAST 5

LL ···

// Model verdict

BTTS 64% chance

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-15.5%0-24.1%0-32.0%0-4+1.0%1 1-06.8%1-110.0%1-27.4%1-33.6%1-4+1.9%2 2-06.1%2-19.0%2-26.7%2-33.3%2-4+1.7%3 3-03.7%3-15.5%3-24.0%3-32.0%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.7%4+-22.8%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.4% 50.0% 2.00 -9.2%

Draw 24.4% 32.3% 3.10 -14.6%

Away win 30.2% 31.3% 3.20 -3.4%

Over 2.5 61.1% 58.8% 1.70 +3.9%

Over 3.5 39.2% 38.6% 2.59 +1.5%

BTTS 61.5% 64.5% 1.55 -4.7%

Home O1.5 50.4% 55.6% 1.80 -9.3%

Away O1.5 42.2% 42.0% 2.38 +0.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.5%

H 45% / xG 1.8-1.5 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–2 7.4%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 2–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Union Saint-Gilloise II1.8

Habay-la-Neuve1.5

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.2%

Form & verdict PPG

UNION SAINT-GILLOISE II · PPG 1.15

HABAY-LA-NEUVE · PPG 0.98

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

64%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.33 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Union Saint-Gilloise II (H) 45.4%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -9.2%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -14.6%

Habay-la-Neuve (A) 30.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -3.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Union Saint-Gilloise II face Habay-la-Neuve in Belgium - First Amateur Division on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Union Saint-Gilloise II a 45% chance, the draw 24% and Habay-la-Neuve 30%, so Union Saint-Gilloise II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Union Saint-Gilloise II and 1.5 for Habay-la-Neuve (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Union Saint-Gilloise II are averaging 1.15 points per game versus 0.98 for Habay-la-Neuve. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +6.5%.

Union Saint-Gilloise II vs Habay-la-Neuve Prediction— Belgium - First Amateur Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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