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Arlanda vs Umeå FC Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra · Matchday 20 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 12:30

Arlanda

PPG 1.90 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLWW

UPCOMING

Umeå FC

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 65% chance

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-15.9%0-22.8%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.3%1-110.8%1-25.1%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.4%2-19.9%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.4%3-16.0%3-22.9%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-14.2%4+-22.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.3% 48.8% 2.05 +9.3%

Draw 23.9% 27.0% 3.70 -6.9%

Away win 22.8% 35.7% 2.80 -21.7%

Over 2.5 59.6% 66.7% 1.50 -10.6%

Over 3.5 36.4% 45.5% 2.20 -19.9%

BTTS 55.9% 69.4% 1.44 -19.5%

Home O1.5 54.4% 59.2% 1.69 -8.1%

Away O1.5 26.1% 47.2% 2.12 -26.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 97 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.9%

H 53% / xG 1.8-0.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–0 10.4%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 11.3%

#5 0–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arlanda1.8

Umeå FC0.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ARLANDA · PPG 1.90

UMEÅ FC · PPG 0.89

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

65%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.89 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Arlanda (H) 53.3%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +9.3%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -6.9%

Umeå FC (A) 22.8%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -21.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Arlanda face Umeå FC in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arlanda a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Umeå FC 23%, so Arlanda are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Arlanda and 0.9 for Umeå FC (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arlanda are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 0.89 for Umeå FC. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +8.8%.

Arlanda vs Umeå FC Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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