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Piteå vs Karlberg Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra · Matchday 20 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 13:00

Piteå

PPG 0.33 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDDL

UPCOMING

Karlberg

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWLD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 61% chance

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.9% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-18.8%0-29.0%0-36.2%0-4+5.1%1 1-04.7%1-19.7%1-29.9%1-36.8%1-4+5.6%2 2-02.6%2-15.3%2-25.4%2-33.7%2-4+3.0%3 3-00.9%3-11.9%3-22.0%3-31.4%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.7%4+-20.7%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.9% 33.3% 3.00 -18.8%

Draw 22.4% 30.8% 3.25 -16.3%

Away win 54.7% 48.8% 2.05 +12.1%

Over 2.5 59.9% 61.7% 1.62 -3.0%

Over 3.5 37.1% 40.0% 2.50 -7.2%

BTTS 58.9% 64.5% 1.55 -8.7%

Home O1.5 30.8% 36.4% 2.75 -15.3%

Away O1.5 58.3% 59.9% 1.67 -2.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 97 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob58.9%

A 55% / xG 1.1-2.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 1–2 9.9%

#3 0–2 9.0%

#4 0–1 8.8%

#5 2–1 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Piteå1.1

Karlberg2.0

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.9% · O3.5 PROB 37.1%

Form & verdict PPG

PITEÅ · PPG 0.33

KARLBERG · PPG 1.40

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

Chance this pick lands

61%

DANGER

xG gap -0.95 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Piteå (H) 22.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -18.8%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -16.3%

Karlberg (A) 54.7%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +12.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Piteå face Karlberg in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Piteå a 23% chance, the draw 22% and Karlberg 55%, so Karlberg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Piteå and 2.0 for Karlberg (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Piteå are averaging 0.33 points per game versus 1.40 for Karlberg. The best value bet our model finds is RES_A/O15, with an expected value of +23.7%.

Piteå vs Karlberg Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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