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Selangor vs Melaka Prediction— Malaysia - Super League

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 12:15

Selangor

PPG 2.10 · HOME

LAST 5

WW ···

UPCOMING

Melaka

PPG 0.66 · AWAY

LAST 5

LW ···

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 84% chance

Model probability 66.3% vs bookmaker-implied 90.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-13.5%0-21.8%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-08.2%1-18.3%1-24.2%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.7%2-19.7%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.5%3-17.6%3-23.8%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-07.7%4+-17.7%4+-23.9%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.8% 90.1% 1.11 -30.3%

Draw 18.9% 11.8% 8.50 +36.4%

Away win 18.3% 6.7% 15.00 +104.7%

Over 2.5 61.6% 73.5% 1.36 -16.2%

Over 3.5 40.2% 54.1% 1.85 -25.6%

BTTS 54.6% 47.2% 2.12 +15.8%

Home O1.5 66.3% 90.9% 1.10 -27.1%

Away O1.5 30.7% 14.7% 6.80 +108.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 37%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -3.6%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.6%

H 63% / xG 2.3-1.0 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.7%

#2 2–0 9.7%

#3 1–1 8.3%

#4 3–1 7.6%

#5 3–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Selangor2.3

Melaka1.0

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SELANGOR · PPG 2.10

MELAKA · PPG 0.66

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

84%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.34 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Selangor (H) 62.8%

ODDS 1.11 · IMPLIED 90.1% EV -30.3%

Draw 18.9%

ODDS 8.50 · IMPLIED 11.8% EV +36.4%

Melaka (A) 18.3%

ODDS 15.00 · IMPLIED 6.7% EV +104.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Selangor face Melaka in Malaysia - Super League on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Selangor a 63% chance, the draw 19% and Melaka 18%, so Selangor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Selangor and 1.0 for Melaka (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Selangor are averaging 2.10 points per game versus 0.66 for Melaka. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +108.8%.

Selangor vs Melaka Prediction— Malaysia - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Malaysia - Super League Predictions