Today / Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland / Grebbestad vs Lidköping

Grebbestad vs Lidköping Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Norra Götaland · Matchday 20 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 12:00

Grebbestad

PPG 1.80 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLDL

UPCOMING

Lidköping

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDDD

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 68% chance

Model probability 66.0% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-14.1%0-22.0%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.1%1-19.0%1-24.4%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.0%2-19.9%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.3%3-17.2%3-23.6%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-06.7%4+-16.7%4+-23.3%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.4% 59.9% 1.67 -7.5%

Draw 21.7% 25.0% 4.00 -7.9%

Away win 22.9% 24.8% 4.04 -4.5%

Over 2.5 61.1% 71.4% 1.40 -14.5%

Over 3.5 38.4% 47.6% 2.10 -19.4%

BTTS 55.9% 66.2% 1.51 -15.6%

Home O1.5 66.0% 69.4% 1.44 -5.0%

Away O1.5 28.9% 41.7% 2.40 -18.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -16.1%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.9%

H 55% / xG 2.2-1.0 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.0%

#2 2–0 10.0%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–2 4.4%

#5 1–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Grebbestad2.2

Lidköping1.0

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.1% · O3.5 PROB 38.4%

Form & verdict PPG

GREBBESTAD · PPG 1.80

LIDKÖPING · PPG 1.20

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

68%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.22 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Grebbestad (H) 55.4%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -7.5%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -7.9%

Lidköping (A) 22.9%

ODDS 4.04 · IMPLIED 24.8% EV -4.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Grebbestad face Lidköping in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Grebbestad a 55% chance, the draw 22% and Lidköping 23%, so Grebbestad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Grebbestad and 1.0 for Lidköping (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Grebbestad are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.20 for Lidköping.

Grebbestad vs Lidköping Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

More Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland Predictions