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Viking II vs Stabæk II Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 4

Matchday 18 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 11:30

Viking II

PPG 2.50 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLDL

UPCOMING

Stabæk II

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWLW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 82% chance

Model probability 78.1% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-11.0%0-20.6%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-02.8%1-13.5%1-22.2%1-30.9%1-4+0.4%2 2-05.1%2-16.3%2-23.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.1%3-17.6%3-24.7%3-31.9%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-014.1%4+-117.5%4+-210.8%4+-34.5%4+-4+1.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.1% 64.5% 1.55 -0.6%

Draw 15.1% 21.1% 4.75 -17.0%

Away win 20.8% 25.0% 4.00 -10.1%

Over 2.5 72.6% 82.0% 1.22 -11.4%

Over 3.5 54.6% 71.4% 1.40 -23.6%

BTTS 63.5% 81.3% 1.23 -21.9%

Home O1.5 78.1% 83.3% 1.20 -6.3%

Away O1.5 36.8% 53.8% 1.86 -31.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 35%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 75%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob63.5%

H 64% / xG 3.6-1.2 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.6%

#2 1–2 2.2%

#3 4–1 6.9%

#4 1–1 3.5%

#5 2–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Viking II3.6

Stabæk II1.2

COMBINED 4.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.6% · O3.5 PROB 54.6%

Form & verdict PPG

VIKING II · PPG 2.50

STABÆK II · PPG 0.88

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

82%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.38 for Home, form 2.50 vs 0.88 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Viking II (H) 64.1%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -0.6%

Draw 15.1%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -17.0%

Stabæk II (A) 20.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -10.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Viking II face Stabæk II in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 4 on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Viking II a 64% chance, the draw 15% and Stabæk II 21%, so Viking II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.6 for Viking II and 1.2 for Stabæk II (4.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Viking II are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 0.88 for Stabæk II. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +14.8%.

Viking II vs Stabæk II Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 4

Match Preview & Prediction

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