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Leça vs Fafe Prediction— Portugal - Liga 3

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 10:00

Leça

PPG 1.42 · HOME

LAST 5

DLW ··

UPCOMING

Fafe

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWD ··

// Model verdict

BTTS 53% chance

Model probability 52.0% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.1%0-111.0%0-26.0%0-32.2%0-4+0.7%1 1-012.2%1-113.2%1-27.2%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.3%2-18.0%2-24.3%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.9%3-13.2%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.2%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.0% 34.5% 2.90 +7.3%

Draw 27.5% 34.5% 2.90 -12.2%

Away win 35.4% 43.5% 2.30 -18.6%

Over 2.5 49.3% 45.5% 2.20 +8.5%

Over 3.5 27.4% 25.0% 4.00 +5.8%

BTTS 52.0% 54.1% 1.85 -3.8%

Home O1.5 33.0% 35.1% 2.85 -5.9%

Away O1.5 32.9% 41.7% 2.40 -21.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.0%

H 37% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 49% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–1 11.0%

#3 0–0 10.1%

#4 1–0 12.2%

#5 1–2 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leça1.2

Fafe1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.3% · O3.5 PROB 27.4%

Form & verdict PPG

LEÇA · PPG 1.42

FAFE · PPG 1.40

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

53%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.12, combined xG 2.29 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Leça (H) 37.0%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +7.3%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -12.2%

Fafe (A) 35.4%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -18.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leça face Fafe in Portugal - Liga 3 on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leça a 37% chance, the draw 28% and Fafe 35%, so Leça are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Leça and 1.1 for Fafe (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leça are averaging 1.42 points per game versus 1.40 for Fafe. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +17.2%.

Leça vs Fafe Prediction— Portugal - Liga 3

Match Preview & Prediction

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