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Karviná II vs Hodonín Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL

MSFL · Matchday 6 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 08:15

Karviná II

PPG 1.39 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWLL

UPCOMING

Hodonín

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 60% chance

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-17.4%0-25.8%0-33.1%0-4+1.7%1 1-06.9%1-110.9%1-28.7%1-34.6%1-4+2.6%2 2-05.1%2-18.1%2-26.4%2-33.4%2-4+1.9%3 3-02.5%3-14.0%3-23.2%3-31.7%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.1%4+-21.6%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.5% 30.8% 3.25 +15.4%

Draw 23.9% 26.7% 3.75 -6.2%

Away win 40.6% 54.6% 1.83 -25.7%

Over 2.5 59.6% 60.6% 1.65 -1.7%

Over 3.5 36.4% 39.1% 2.56 -6.8%

BTTS 59.4% 64.5% 1.55 -7.9%

Home O1.5 39.9% 38.3% 2.61 +4.1%

Away O1.5 47.9% 56.8% 1.76 -15.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 40.9%

Bet Hit 90%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob59.4%

A 41% / xG 1.5-1.6 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–1 8.1%

#4 0–2 5.8%

#5 0–1 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Karviná II1.5

Hodonín1.6

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

KARVINÁ II · PPG 1.39

HODONÍN · PPG 1.62

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.10 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Karviná II (H) 35.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +15.4%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -6.2%

Hodonín (A) 40.6%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -25.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Karviná II face Hodonín in Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Karviná II a 36% chance, the draw 24% and Hodonín 41%, so Hodonín are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Karviná II and 1.6 for Hodonín (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Karviná II are averaging 1.39 points per game versus 1.62 for Hodonín. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +16.1%.

Karviná II vs Hodonín Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL

Match Preview & Prediction

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