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Hranice vs Vrchovina Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL

MSFL · Matchday 6 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 16:00

Hranice

PPG 1.01 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWL

UPCOMING

Vrchovina

PPG 1.23 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 61% chance

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-17.7%0-24.8%0-32.0%0-4+0.8%1 1-09.5%1-111.8%1-27.4%1-33.1%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.3%2-19.1%2-25.7%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.7%3-14.6%3-22.9%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.5%4+-21.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.0% 40.0% 2.50 +15.0%

Draw 24.4% 33.3% 3.00 -16.1%

Away win 29.6% 40.0% 2.50 -15.6%

Over 2.5 53.8% 59.9% 1.67 -10.2%

Over 3.5 33.7% 36.5% 2.74 -7.7%

BTTS 55.9% 63.7% 1.57 -12.2%

Home O1.5 41.9% 45.7% 2.19 -8.2%

Away O1.5 36.8% 45.5% 2.20 -19.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 40.9%

Bet Hit 90%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.9%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–0 9.5%

#4 2–0 7.3%

#5 1–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hranice1.5

Vrchovina1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 33.7%

Form & verdict PPG

HRANICE · PPG 1.01

VRCHOVINA · PPG 1.23

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

61%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.28 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Hranice (H) 46.0%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +15.0%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -16.1%

Vrchovina (A) 29.6%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -15.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hranice face Vrchovina in Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hranice a 46% chance, the draw 24% and Vrchovina 30%, so Hranice are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Hranice and 1.3 for Vrchovina (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hranice are averaging 1.01 points per game versus 1.23 for Vrchovina.

Hranice vs Vrchovina Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL

Match Preview & Prediction

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