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Frýdek-Místek vs Uničov Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL

MSFL · Matchday 6 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Frýdek-Místek

PPG 2.27 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLWW

UPCOMING

Uničov

PPG 1.82 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 58% chance

Model probability 55.7% vs bookmaker-implied 59.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-17.5%0-24.0%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.0%1-111.9%1-26.4%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.8%2-19.5%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.7%3-15.0%3-22.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.9%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.0% 57.1% 1.75 -17.8%

Draw 24.5% 27.0% 3.70 -5.6%

Away win 28.4% 28.6% 3.50 -0.4%

Over 2.5 53.8% 55.6% 1.80 -3.2%

Over 3.5 31.7% 35.3% 2.83 -10.3%

BTTS 55.7% 59.5% 1.68 -6.4%

Home O1.5 47.6% 56.5% 1.77 -15.8%

Away O1.5 32.7% 31.7% 3.15 +3.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 40.9%

Bet Hit 90%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.7%

H 47% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 11.0%

#4 2–0 8.8%

#5 1–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Frýdek-Místek1.6

Uničov1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FRÝDEK-MÍSTEK · PPG 2.27

UNIČOV · PPG 1.82

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

58%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.51 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Frýdek-Místek (H) 47.0%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -17.8%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -5.6%

Uničov (A) 28.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -0.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Frýdek-Místek face Uničov in Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Frýdek-Místek a 47% chance, the draw 25% and Uničov 28%, so Frýdek-Místek are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Frýdek-Místek and 1.1 for Uničov (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Frýdek-Místek are averaging 2.27 points per game versus 1.82 for Uničov. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +13.3%.

Frýdek-Místek vs Uničov Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL

Match Preview & Prediction

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