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Zbrojovka Brno II vs Polanka nad Odrou Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL

MSFL · Matchday 6 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 08:15

Zbrojovka Brno II

PPG 2.16 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWWW

UPCOMING

Polanka nad Odrou

PPG 0.98 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLLD

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 75% chance

Model probability 66.3% vs bookmaker-implied 78.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-14.0%0-22.1%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-08.3%1-18.8%1-24.7%1-31.7%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.2%2-19.8%2-25.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.9%3-17.3%3-23.9%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-06.4%4+-16.8%4+-23.6%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.8% 80.0% 1.25 -26.5%

Draw 20.2% 18.2% 5.50 +6.7%

Away win 21.0% 13.3% 7.50 +34.5%

Over 2.5 63.5% 69.4% 1.44 -8.6%

Over 3.5 40.2% 49.0% 2.04 -18.0%

BTTS 55.9% 54.1% 1.85 +3.4%

Home O1.5 66.3% 78.7% 1.27 -15.8%

Away O1.5 32.5% 19.4% 5.15 +67.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 40.9%

Bet Hit 90%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.9%

H 59% / xG 2.2-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.8%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.2%

#4 3–1 7.3%

#5 1–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zbrojovka Brno II2.2

Polanka nad Odrou1.1

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.5% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ZBROJOVKA BRNO II · PPG 2.16

POLANKA NAD ODROU · PPG 0.98

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.16 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Zbrojovka Brno II (H) 58.8%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -26.5%

Draw 20.2%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +6.7%

Polanka nad Odrou (A) 21.0%

ODDS 7.50 · IMPLIED 13.3% EV +34.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zbrojovka Brno II face Polanka nad Odrou in Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zbrojovka Brno II a 59% chance, the draw 20% and Polanka nad Odrou 21%, so Zbrojovka Brno II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Zbrojovka Brno II and 1.1 for Polanka nad Odrou (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zbrojovka Brno II are averaging 2.16 points per game versus 0.98 for Polanka nad Odrou. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +67.4%.

Zbrojovka Brno II vs Polanka nad Odrou Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL

Match Preview & Prediction

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