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Hodonín vs Sigma Olomouc II Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL

MSFL · Matchday 17 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 14:30

Hodonín

PPG 1.17 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLDL

UPCOMING

Sigma Olomouc II

PPG 1.87 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-18.0%0-27.7%0-34.9%0-4+3.6%1 1-05.3%1-110.1%1-29.7%1-36.2%1-4+4.6%2 2-03.3%2-16.3%2-26.1%2-33.9%2-4+2.9%3 3-01.4%3-12.7%3-22.5%3-31.6%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.1%4+-21.1%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.7% 23.1% 4.33 +4.2%

Draw 24.1% 25.0% 4.00 -2.2%

Away win 51.3% 63.7% 1.57 -19.5%

Over 2.5 59.7% 63.7% 1.57 -6.3%

Over 3.5 36.7% 40.2% 2.49 -8.6%

BTTS 59.0% 62.1% 1.61 -5.0%

Home O1.5 37.5% 32.9% 3.04 +14.0%

Away O1.5 58.3% 63.3% 1.58 -7.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 35.9%

Bet Hit 88%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 42%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob59.0%

A 51% / xG 1.3-1.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–2 7.7%

#4 2–1 6.3%

#5 0–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hodonín1.3

Sigma Olomouc II1.9

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

HODONÍN · PPG 1.17

SIGMA OLOMOUC II · PPG 1.87

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.66 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Hodonín (H) 24.7%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +4.2%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -2.2%

Sigma Olomouc II (A) 51.3%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -19.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hodonín face Sigma Olomouc II in Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hodonín a 25% chance, the draw 24% and Sigma Olomouc II 51%, so Sigma Olomouc II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Hodonín and 1.9 for Sigma Olomouc II (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hodonín are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 1.87 for Sigma Olomouc II. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +14.3%.

Hodonín vs Sigma Olomouc II Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL

Match Preview & Prediction

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